Some infected people get tested when they are still asymptomatic, and are counted early, others may delay alerting healthcare personnel, and end up being counted later. Finding and counting infected individuals is not easy. Then what would be the reason for discrepancies with the data? Errors! Errors in the sense a natural scientist would use the word: any unforeseen event that makes your measure a number while reality is represented by a different number. Now, let’s say that we had a reason to believe that the fit really represented the true dynamics of the infection (we don’t… but allow me, for the sake of the argument).
That’s pretty good for something as trivially simple as drawing a parabola through the logarithm of a bunch of data. Just to show how good, here’s the relative error (this graph uses the additional data point relative to March 21st).Įvery day, the discrepancy between the data and the fitted line is no more than about 10%.
New York, Charles Scribner's Sons, Full Text Available Online.
They made small footholds at Sagrado and Redipuglia on the Karst Plateau south of Gorizia but were unable to do much else. Italian troops, such as the Italian Re and Casale Brigades, were able to advance as far as the suburbs but could get no further and were driven back. The fighting at Gorizia consisted of street-by-street urban combat interspersed with artillery fire. In addition to the natural defenses of the river and mountains, bastions were created at Oslavia and Podgora. The heaviest fighting occurred around Gorizia. However, they were unable to dislodge the Austro-Hungarian troops from the high ground between Tolmino and the Isonzo, which would later form a launching off point for the Caporetto Offensive. They partially took Monte Nero (Monte Krn), took Monte Colowrat, and captured the heights around Plezzo. The Austro-Hungarians had the advantage of fighting from uphill positions barricaded with barbed wire which were able to easily resist the Italian assault. The aim of the Italian Army was to drive the Austrians away from its defensive positions along the Isonzo and Soča rivers and on the nearby mountains and hopefully capture the port of Trieste.Īlthough the Italians enjoyed a 2:1 numeric superiority, their offensive failed because the Italian commander, Luigi Cadorna, employed frontal assaults after impressive (but short) artillery barrages.
The First Battle of the Isonzo was fought between the Armies of Italy and Austria-Hungary on the northeastern Italian Front in World War I, between 23 June and 7 July 1915.